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Publications - David Stainforth |
Below is a list of my publications. The journal links provide the published copy but the copy available for download from this site is sometimes (not always) a late author's draft i.e. before formatting and final corrections. Please contact me if you would like a copy of the final published version of any paper if you cannot access it from the journal website.
My publications are divided into: books, non-academic papers, journal papers, book chapters/sections, working papers and policy briefs, and conference papers.
Books:Stainforth, D.A.. Predicting Our Climate Future: What we know, what we don't know and what we can't know. Oxford University Press, 2023.
Stainforth, D.A. The Changing Shape of Climate. Earth Magazine, July 2018. [Journal copy]
Cael, B.B., P. Goodwin, C. R. Pearce, and D. Stainforth. Benefit-cost ratios of carbon dioxide removal strategies, Environmental Research Letters, accepted Sept. 2023.
Rising, J., M. Tedesco, F. Piontek and D. Stainforth. The missing
risks of climate change, Nature.
Oct. 2022. [Local journal copy]
Cael, B. B., G. L. Britten, F. Mir Calafat, J. Bloch-Johnson, D.
Stainforth and P. Goodwin. Climate
nonlinearities: selection, uncertainty, projections, and damages,
Environmental Research Letters,
17, 084025, Aug 2022. [Local journal copy]
Calel, R. and D. A. Stainforth. The Economics of Global Climate
Variability, US CLIVAR
Variations, Vol 20, No. 1. Winter 2022. (Not peer reviewed) [Local
journal copy]
Katzav, J., E. Thompson, J. Risby, D. A. Stainforth, S. Bradley,
M. Frisch. On the appropriate
and inappropriate uses of probability
distributions in climate projections and some alternatives, Climatic
Change, Nov 2021.[Local author copy]
Baldissera Pacchetti, M., S. Dessai, S. Bradley and D. A. Stainforth. Assessing the quality of regional climate information . Bulletin of the America Meteorological Society, March 2021. [Local copy]
Watkins, N.W., R. Klages, D. Stainforth, I. Ford, S. C. Chapman and A. Chechkin. Generalized Langevin dynamics for modeling the temperature of the earth. Accepted in proceedings of Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems, Nashua, New Hampshire, July 2020, [ArXiv copy]
Calel, R., S.C. Chapman, D.A. Stainforth and N.W. Watkins. Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change . Nature Communications, October 2020. [Local copy including SI.] Winner of the Lloyds Science of Risk Prize 2021
Stainforth, D.A. and R. Calel. New priorities for climate science and climate economics in the 2020s . Nature Communications, August 2020. [Local copy]
Chapman, S.C., N.W. Watkins and D.A.Stainforth. Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record . Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, June 2020. [Journal copy] [Local copy of supplementary information.]
Harrison, S., T. Mighall, D.A.Stainforth, P. Allen, M. Macklin, E. Anderson, J. Knight, D. Mauquoy, D. Passmore, B. Rea, M. Spagnolo and S, Shannon. Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change . Climatic Change, 46, 10.1029/2018GL081004, Sept. 2019. [Journal copy]
Chapman, S.C., N.W. Watkins and D.A.Stainforth. Warming Trends in Summer HeatWaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 156, Issue 1-2, pp69-86, 10.1007/s10584-019-02520-8, Jan. 2019. [Journal copy] [Local copy of paper including supplementary information.]
Shepherd, T.G., E. Boyd, R.A. Calel, S.C. Chapman, S. Dessai, I.M. Dima-West, H.J. Fowler, R. James, D. Maraun, O. Martius, C.A. Senior, A.H. Sobel, D.A. Stainforth, S.F.B. Tett, K.E. Trenberth, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, N.W. Watkins, R.L. Wilby & D.A. Zenghelis. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, 151, 555-571, 10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, Dec 2018. [Journal copy]
Dessai, S., A.J. Bhave, C. Birch, D. Conway, L. Garcia-Carreras, J.P. Gosling, N. Mittal, D.A. Stainforth. Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 074005, June 2018. [Journal copy]
Bhave, A.J., D. Conway, S. Desai, D.A. Stainforth. Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. Water Resources Research, February 2018, pp708-728. [Journal copy]Bhave, A.J., D. Conway, S. Desai, D.A. Stainforth. Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. Water Resources Research, February 2018, pp708-728. [Journal copy]
Calel, R. and D.A. Stainforth. On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), June 2017, pp1199-1216. [Journal copy] [Local copy of supplementary information.]
Bhave, A.G., D. Conway, S. Desai, D.A. Stainforth , Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world Climate Risk Management, Sept, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.09.004. [Journal copy]
Chapman, S. C., D. A.Stainforth & N. W. Watkins Limits to the quantification of local climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 094018, 2015. [Journal copy]
Hawkins, E., R. Smith, J. Gregory & D. A. Stainforth Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climatic Change, 1-13, 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8. [Journal copy]
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith and D.A. Stainforth An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09 . Synthese, 2015, doi 10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8. [Journal copy]
Daron, J.D. and D.A. Stainforth, On quantifying the climate of the nonautonomous Lorenz-63 model. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2015. [Journal copy]
Wesselink, A., A. Challinor, J. Watson, K. Beven, I. Allen, H. Hanlon, A. Lopez, S. Lorenz, F. Otto, A. Morse, C. Rye, S. Saux-Picard, D. Stainforth, and E. Suckling, Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change, 2014. [Journal copy]
Calel, R., D.A. Stainforth, and S. Dietz, Tall tales and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming. Climatic Change, 2013
Stainforth, D. A., Climate Projection: Testing climate assumptions. Nature Climate Change 2014. [Journal copy]
Daron J. D. and D. A. Stainforth, Assessing
pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate. Climate Risk Management,
February 2014. [Journal
copy]
{This paper won the Lloyds Science of Risk runners up prize 2014 in the
Climate Change category.}
Stainforth, D. A., S. C. Chapman and N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions. Environ. Res. Lett 2013. 8. [Journal copy]
Daron J. D. and D. A. Stainforth, On predicting climate under climate change. Environ. Res. Lett., 2013, 8.
Chapman, S.C., D.A. Stainforth, and N.W. Watkins, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013 (371).
Millner, A., R. Calel, D. Stainforth, and G. MacKerron, Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? Climatic Change, 2013. 116(2): p. 427-436. [Journal Link, Supplementary Information Link]
Stainforth, D.A. and L.A. Smith, Clarify the limits of climate models. Nature, 2012. 489(7415): p. 208-208. (Not peer reviewed)
Oreskes, N., D.A. Stainforth, and L.A. Smith, Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? Philosophy of Science, 2010. 77(5): p. 1012-1028.
Harrison, S. and D. Stainforth, Predicting Climate Change: Lessons From Reductionism, Emergence, and the Past. Eos, 2009. 90(13): p. 111-112.
Rougier, J., D. M. H. Sexton, J. M. Murphy, and D. Stainforth, Analyzing the Climate Sensitivity of the HadSM3 Climate Model Using Ensembles from Different but Related Experiments. Journal of Climate, 2009. 22(13): p. 3540-3557.
Sanderson, B.M., R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, W. J. Ingram, C. Piani, D.A. Stainforth, D.A. Stone, M.R. Allen, Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes. Journal of Climate, 2008. 21(11): p. 2384-2400.
Knight, C.G., S.H.E. Knight, N. Massey, T. Aina, C. Christensen, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe, B. Sanderson, D.A. Stainforth, and M.R. Allen, Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007. 104(30): p. 12259-12264..
Stainforth, D.A., M.R. Allen, E.R. Tredger, and L.A. Smith, Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2007. 365(1857): p. 2145-2161.
Stainforth, D.A., T.E. Downing, R. Washington, A. Lopez, and M. New, Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2007. 365(1857): p. 2163-2177.
Massey,N., T. Aina, M. Allen, C. Christensen, D. Frame, D. Goodman, J. Kettleborough, A. Martin, S. Pascoe & D. Stainforth, Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences, 2006. Vol 8, pages 49‐56.
Lopez, A., C. Tebaldi, M. New, D. Stainforth, M. Allen, and J. Kettleborough, Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. Journal of Climate, 2006. 19(19): p. 4785-4796.
Knutti, R., G.A. Meehl, M.R. Allen, and D.A. Stainforth, Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 2006. 19(17): p. 4224-4233.
Piani, C., D.J. Frame, D.A. Stainforth, and M.R. Allen, Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005. 32(23).
Kargel, J.S., M. J. Abrams, M. P. Bishop, A. Bush, G. Hamilton, H. Jiskoot, A. Kääb, H.H. Kieffer, E. M. Lee, F. Paul, F. Rau, B. Raup, J. F. Shroder, D. Soltesz, D. Stainforth, L. Stearns, R. Wessels, Multispectral imaging contributions to global land ice measurements from space. Remote Sensing of Environment,2005. Vol 99, 187– 219.
Frame, D.J., B.B.B. Booth, J.A. Kettleborough, D.A. Stainforth, J.M. Gregory, M. Collins, and M.R. Allen, Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005. 32(9).
Stainforth, D.A., T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe, and M.R. Allen, Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 2005. 433(7024): p. 403-406.
Murphy, J.M., D.M.H. Sexton, D.N. Barnett, G.S. Jones, M.J. Webb, M. Collins and D.A. Stainforth, Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 2004. 430(7001): p. 768-772.
Piani, C., W.A. Norton, and D.A. Stainforth, Equatorial stratospheric response to variations in deterministic and stochastic gravity wave parameterizations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2004. 109(D14).
Allen, M.R. and D.A. Stainforth, Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting. Nature, 2002. 419(6903): p. 228-228.
Hansen, J.A., M. Allen, D. Stainforth, A. Heaps, and P. Stott, Casino-21: Climate simulation of the 21st century. World Resource Review, Vol 13, Nos 2-4, 2001: p. 187-198.
Scaife, A.A., N. Butchart, C.D. Warner, D. Stainforth, W. Norton, and J. Austin, Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in a simulation of the global climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 2000. 27(21): p. 3481-3484.
Killworth, P.D., D. Stainforth, D.J. Webb, and S.M. Paterson, The Development of a Free-Surface Bryan-Cox-Semtner Ocean Model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1991. 21(9): p. 1333-1348.
Stainforth, D.A. Quantifying and dealing with uncertainty in climate-related models, Box 1.4 in Ch. 1 of Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, Eds. Richardson, K., Steffen, W., and Liverman, D., 2011, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. P 17-19.
Allen, M.R., D.J. Frame, J. Kettleborough, and D.A. Stainforth, Model error in weather and climate forecasting, in Predictability of Weather and Climate, T.N. Palmer, Editor 2006, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. p. 391-427.
*Stainforth, D.A., M. R. Allen, D. J. Frame, C. Piani, Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts, Chapter 33 of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, 2006. Cambridge University Press, ISBN‐13: 9780521864718, ISBN‐10: 0521864712
*Allen, M., N. Andronova, B. Booth, S. Dessai, D. Frame, C. Forest, J. Gregory, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, C. Piani, D. Sexton and D. Stainforth, Observational Constraints on Climate Sensitivity, Chapter 29 of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, 2006. Cambridge University Press, ISBN‐13: 9780521864718, ISBN‐10: 0521864712.
Stainforth, D.A., M.R. Allen, D.J. Frame, J. Kettleborough, C. Christensen, T. Aina, and M. Collins, Climateprediction.net: A Global Community for Research in Climate Physics, in Environmental Online Communication, A. Scharl, Editor. 2004, Springer-Verlag London Ltd.: London.
DeFries, R., O. Edenhofer, A. Halliday, G. Heal, T. Lenton, M. Puma, J. Rising, J. Rockström, A. Ruane, H. J. Schellnhuber, D. Stainforth, N. Stern, M. Tedesco, R. Ward. The missing economic risks in assessments of climate change impacts . GRI Policy Insight, Sept. 2019. [Journal copy]
Dessai, S., A.J. Bhave, C. Birch, D. Conway, L. Garcia-Carreras, J.P. Gosling, N. Mittal, D.A. Stainforth. Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. CCCEP Working Paper 332. January 2018
Fankhauser, S., N. Ranger, J. Colmer, S. Fisher, S. Surminski, D. Stainforth and A. Williamson, An Independent National Adaptation Programme for England. Policy brief, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & Environment, London, UK, 2013.
Stainforth, D. A., Estimating Uncertainty in Future Climate Projections in O J Rolf, J Kiang and R Waskom (eds) Workshop on Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, and Water Management, 2010. Colorado Water Institute Information Series No. 109.
Christensen, C., T. Aina & D. Stainforth, The Challenge of Volunteer Computing With Lengthy Climate Model Simulations, Proceedings of the e‐Science 2005 International Conference, Melbourne, December 2005.
Walton, J.P.R.B., D.J. Frame, and D.A. Stainforth. Visualization For Public-Resource Climate Modeling. in VisSym04: Joint EUROGRAPHICS - IEEE TCVG Symposium on Visualization. 2004. Konstanz: Eurographics Association.
Stainforth, D.A., A. Martin, A. Simpson, C. Christensen, J. Kettleborough, T. Aina, and M. Allen, Security principles for public-resource modeling research. Thirteenth IEEE International Workshop on Enabling Technologies: Infrastructure for Collaborative Enterprises, Proceedings, 2004: p. 319-324.
Stainforth, D.A., J. Kettleborough, M. Allen, M. Collins, A. Heaps, and J. Murphy, Distributed computing for public-interest climate modeling research. Computing in Science & Engineering, 2002. 4(3): p. 82-89. [Citations: 22]
Allen, M.R., J. A. Kettleborough and D. Stainforth, Model error in weather and climate forecasting. Proceedings of the 2002 ECMWF Predictability Seminar, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK.
Yordi, B., D. Stainforth, H. Edwards, W. Gillett, H. Lloyd and V. Gerhold, Demonstrating PV Technologies for the PV Markets of the Future: Experiences from the THERMIE Programme, 14th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, 1997.
Stainforth, D.A. and G. Staunton, Critical Success Factors for Renewable Energy Technologies, IEEE AFRICON Conference ‐ keynote speaker, 1996.
Morison, G., J. E. Nielsen, A. Suzuki, L. Bosselaar, G. White, F. Salvesen, M. Rantil, V. Kyburz, D. Stainforth and K. Sheinkopf, Mini‐Review of Active (Thermal) Solar Energy 1995, CADDET Centre for Renewable Energy publication, 1996.
Yordi, B., D. Stainforth, W. Gillett, H. Edwards, V. Gerhold, G. Riesch and G. Blaesser, The Commission of the European Communitiesʹ Demonstration and THERMIE Programmes For Photovoltaic (PV) Applications, Solar World Energy Congress, Zimbabwe, 1995.
Stainforth, D., A. Cole, P. Dolley, H. Edwards, J. Wilczek and M. Wood, An Overview of the UK Department of Trade and Industryʹs Programme In Solar Energy, Solar World Energy Congress, Zimbabwe, 1995.
Yordi, B., H. Edwards, W. Gillett, D. Stainforth and V. Gerhold, Lessons Learned From The Operation Of PV Demonstration Projects In Europe, 13th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, 1995.
Stainforth, D. A. and S.A.M. Burek, An Assessment of the Potential for Solar Energy in Hungary, Solar World Energy Congress in Budapest, 1993.