Stainforth, D.A. and R. Calel New
priorities for climate science
and climate economics in the 2020s
Communications, August 2020. [Local
This comment piece calls for new approaches to research on climate
change in both the physical and social sciences / economics.
It argues for a change of focus in these disciplines and a significant
scale up of efforts to understand the
conceptual challenges in physical climate change predictions and
assoiated economic assessments. Such efforts would lead to research
outputs being much better
support policy makers and societal planning.
Chapman, S.C., N.W. Watkins and D.A.Stainforth. Trends in
Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record
of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,
June 2020. [Journal
copy of supplementary information.]
There is great interest in the extremes of summer heat waves but
changes in the duration, return periods and temperatures of warms
spells in winter can also have a significant impact, for instance on
ecosystems. This paper demonstrates methods for quantifying such
changes in the observational record.
Harrison, S., T. Mighall, D.A.Stainforth, P. Allen,
Macklin, E. Anderson, J. Knight, D. Mauquoy, D. Passmore, B. Rea, M.
Spagnolo and S, Shannon. Uncertainty
in geomorphological responses
to climate change
46, 10.1029/2018GL081004, Sept. 2019. [Journal
The sensitivity of nonlinear systems to small uncertainties in the
initial state - a characteristic of mathematical chaos - is well known
and widely studied. The implications for uncertainties in our
projections of climate change are increasingly in the spot light - see
for instance the Hawkins et al paper below. It is often assumed,
however, that landscapes respond to climate in a relatively linear and
predictable way. This paper demonstrates that this is unlikely to be
and calls for a more probabilistic approach to the study of
responses to climate change. This is something which is of practical
for infrastructure planning and management in the context
of climate change.
Philosophy of Climate Science
Nonlinear dynamical systems (chaos)
Economics of Climate Change (specifically IAMs)
Climate Modelling and Its Interpretation
few further publications from recent years which give a
my work and interests:
full list is available from the publications
Stainforth, D.A.. The Changing
Shape of Climate. Earth Magazine,
July 2018. [Journal
A public facing magazine piece which attempts to
describe the conflicting statistical requirements one comes across when
trying to "observe" aspects of climate change. It is based on a series
of academic papers in Environmental Research Leters and Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society.
Chapman, S.C., N.W. Watkins and D.A.Stainforth. Warming
in Summer HeatWaves.
156, Issue 1-2, pp69-86, 10.1007/s10584-019-02520-8, Jan. 2019. [Journal
copy of paper including supplementary information.]
Dessai, S., A.J. Bhave, C. Birch, D. Conway, L.
Garcia-Carreras, J.P. Gosling, N. Mittal, D.A. Stainforth. Building
narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change
through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters,
13, 074005, June 2018. [Journal
Calel, R. and D.A. Stainforth. On the
Physics of Three
Integrated Assessment Models. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society (BAMS), June 2017, pp1199-1216. [Journal
copy of supplementary information.]
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith and D.A. Stainforth An assessment of the
foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate
projections: the case of UKCP09
Hawkins, E., R. Smith, J. Gregory & D. A.
uncertainty in near-term climate projections.
1-13, 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8. [Journal
Stainforth D. A., S. C. Chapman and N. W. Watkins, Mapping
climate change in European temperature distributions.
Lett 2013. 8. [Journal
Daron J. D. and D. A. Stainforth, On
predicting climate under climate change. Environ. Res. Lett.,
recent workshops/conferences etc. in which I have been / will