Confidence from models [could be on a graphic, as with probability/deep uncertainty on ‘flavours’ page]

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Confidence
from physics

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Confident
uncertainty
Our computer models of the atmosphere, oceans and other parts of the climate system are increasingly sophisticated. One use of these models is to work out different possibilities for the future. Every one of them shows that the Mediterranean region might have a greater increase in its summer temperatures than the average global change. Should we trust this?
The answer is yes – because our computer models are telling us something we expect to be true from our understanding of physical processes.
So while we shouldn’t believe that we can trust our computer models to map every detail of what might happen, it seems that they might begin to give us an indication of the plausible range of behaviour we need to consider.
One of the biggest research challenges in the science of climate change is understanding how to use the complicated computer models that have been built over the last 30 years and more; and understanding how we can get confident information from those models. That’s where it starts to get exciting.
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