Confidence in deep uncertainty


In a system subject to deep uncertainty, we don’t know the probabilities for the different possible outcomes. But we can still know something about what is possible and what isn’t – and sometimes we can even know that some things are more likely than others.

How can we know what is possible? Back to our loaded dice. Before you roll a dice, it’s worth looking at its sides. Is it a normal dice, numbered 1–6?

If so, what possibility do you think there would be of rolling a 7?

[Dice video 2] example how to do this:[infopopup:test]

Even in a situation of deep uncertainty, you can sometimes know what can’t happen. You can explore this idea here [link to NAG board] too – it’s the main thing this website is about, after all.