Deep uncertainty [show on/over a graphic of world map or ??]




This is the term statisticians use to mean that we don’t know how probable any given outcome is. We might (or might not) know the range of probable outcomes – but saying there is one chance in six, for example, is impossible.

Imagine you’re rolling dice with a cheat. You know you don’t trust this person, so you might expect them to be using loaded dice.

Even though you expect this, you can’t be sure the dice is loaded, or how it is loaded… so the only way you can find out the actual probabilities is to watch the cheat roll again and again. It would be really hard to bet confidently on the first few rolls of the dice in this case, because you have deep uncertainty of the outcome. But it gets easier as you become more and more confident about the probabilities of different results for this particular dice.

[Dice video 1]